SCOPE NY

Election Update as of Thursday Night

11/18/2022 11:32 AM | Anonymous

Election Update as of Thursday Night  by Tom Reynolds

On Thursday night, in the House, both Fox and CNN give the Republicans 218 seats.  Therefore, they have the 218 needed for a majority.  Democrats have 210 per CNN and 212 per Fox so there are either 5 or 7 undecided races

Note: In some cases, they differ as to the % of total vote in.

Uncalled races that are likely Republican victories and would bring Republicans to 219 (1 more than the majority.):

            In California 3rd, Republican leads by 9,500 votes with 61% in

Races where the Republican leads and winning all 3 takes the total to 222:

  • In Colorado 3rd, Republican Boebert leads by 550 votes with 99% in**

  • In California 22nd, Republican leads by 3,500 votes with 78% in

  • In California 13rd, Republican leads by 800 votes with 69%-93% in

     **Automatic recount if under .50%.   Currently.16%

Races where Fox - but not CNN - called it for the Democrat

  • In Colorado 8th, Republican trails by 1,600 votes with 99% in. 

  • In California 47th, Republican trails by 8,200 votes with 96% in

In Alaska’s House race, it is going to a second round of ranked voting since no one got 50%.  Two Republicans combined have 4,000 more 1stchoice votes than the first place Democrat.  A fourth libertarian candidate got 4,000 votes.  81% to 91% in.

Note: Under ranked voting, the 4th place candidate is eliminated and his votes are redistributed based on 2nd choice.  If still no winner, the 3rd place candidate is eliminated and his votes are redistributed based on 2nd choice. 

Heavily Republican Alaska could end up with a Democrat Congressperson.

In the Alaska Senate election, Republican Kelly Tshibaka, (who earned an endorsement from former President Donald Trump), has a narrow lead over pro-impeachment Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski. With 97% of the votes counted, Tshibaka leads by 565.  Tshibaka and Murkowski both have approximately 43 percent of the vote.  Alaska is guaranteed a Republican Senator but the question is: who?

The Senate race will also be decided by ranked choice voting.  A recent video exposed a Senator Lisa Murkowski aide claiming the ballot measure instituting ranked choice votingwas promoted by people who “wanted Lisa to get reelected.”

Even if she does not win in the first round of voting, Murkowski could see a significant bump in the second round from voters who selected Democrat candidate Pat Chesbro as their first choice.  Before the election, Murkowski allied herself with Democrat Chesbro, who in turn said she was voting for Murkowski in an effort to gain support down ballot against Tshibaka.

Throughout the race, Murkowski was aided with $9 million from the Mitch McConnell-backed super PAC. The fund backed Murkowski even as it pulled funds from New Hampshire Senate Republican challenger General Don Bolduc and Arizona Senate Republican candidate Blake Masters, both of whom ended up losing while a Republican was guaranteed a win in Alaska.

Alaska’s Division of Elections will tabulate voters’ second and third-ranked choices on November 23rd, with officials striving to certify the election’s results on November 29th.

Question of the day: Will California ever finish counting?

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