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Briefings  from our SCOPE membership

  • 12/10/2020 12:50 PM | Anonymous

    The Time Has Come for SCOPE Members to Do More by John Elwood

    Presumptive President-Elect Joe Biden has a history of restricting gun rights.  In 1993, then Senator Biden supported the Brady Handgun Prevention Act and in 1994 he helped pass a 10-year ban on assault weapons and high capacity magazines.  (The ban was ineffective and not renewed but that lesson has been lost on Biden.) 

    Presumptive President-Elect Biden’s new administration is planning to propose a significant number of firearms’ legislation including: banning the manufacture and sale of assault weapons and high capacity magazines; restricting the number of firearms an individual may purchase to one per month; doing away with the “Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act” which would result in bankrupting firearms manufacturers with law suits; taxing rifle owners $200 for each rifle and $200 for each high capacity magazine. 

    It is time for SCOPE members to do more than just attend monthly meetings.

    Membership in gun rights organizations like SCOPE is extremely important, especially now, with a liberal administration about to take office.  SCOPE membership increased after the SAFE ACT but attendance at monthly meetings remained low, even with the possibility of degradation or loss of our Second Amendment rights.  When gun owners were asked why they did not join SCOPE and SCOPE members were asked why they didn’t attend SCOPE meetings, their answer was, basically, “life gets in the way”.  Apathy reigned at epidemic levels.  With the new administration in Washington, SCOPE members and gun owners no longer have the luxury of apathy and not getting involved.  It is not enough for SCOPE members to just attend a month meeting.  We must do more.

    What must we do? 

    Individual SCOPE members must get more involved by:  reading and studying current and proposed firearms legislation (like S7065/AO 1589A which require the purchaser of any firearm, rifle or shotgun to pass a mental health evaluation); laying out your position on specific firearms legislation to your state and federal legislators and, when needed, traveling to Albany to meet with legislators; helping increase membership by talking to family and friends about joining SCOPE;

    If we do not get more involved with NY State firearms legislation, we will lose our constitutional right to keep and bear arms.  Make a new year’s resolution to become more involved in 2021.  Our constitutional right to keep and bear arms may depend on your involvement. 

  • 12/10/2020 12:47 PM | Anonymous

    If Dead People Can Vote, What Is Stopping Gun Owners? by Tom Reynolds

    19.4 million people live in NY State.

    12.4 million New Yorkers are registered and active voters.                   

    6.8 million New Yorkers voted in the 2020 election.

    3.8 million New Yorkers voted for Biden in 2020.

    3.6 million New Yorkers voted for Cuomo in 2018.

    5.0 million New Yorkers own guns

    6 votes are the difference in a congressional race in Iowa, after a recount of 394,000 votes.

    13 votes are the difference in the Tenney vs Brindisi race for the 22nd Congressional District in Upstate NY and a judge is currently reviewing ballots, including those of 3 dead people.  (If dead people can vote, what is stopping gun owners?)

    4.9 million people voted in Georgia and David Perdue led by 90 thousand votes but he lacked the 13 thousand more needed to reach 50% and avoid a January runoff election.  (If he got 1 more vote for every 200 that he got, he would not have a runoff election on January.)

    The National Education Association (NEA) is the largest union in the entire USA with approximately 3 million members nationwide of which 431 thousand are in New York State. If 60% of the gun owners in New York would vote, we would be as large as the NEA is in the entire country and be the most powerful lobby, by far, in New York State.  (Politicians would sell their 1st born for 3 million votes!) 

    Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have promised to do away with 2nd Amendment rights.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has already been trying that for years.  Andrew Cuomo never met a gun control bill he didn’t like.  These are the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse for 2nd Amendment rights; what further motivation do gun owners need?  

    Based on membership application responses, most SCOPE members are registered to vote.  Do they actually vote…?  Since they care enough to join SCOPE and probably joined other 2A organizations such as the NRA and NYSRPA, we’re “preaching to the choir” about voting.  But those who are missing are the millions of gun owners who don’t vote.  We need to focus on reaching those non-voters and getting them to register and vote.  We’ve got two years until the next major election and now is the time to start.

    At this point, most SCOPE members are saying “Yeah”… and delegating up to state SCOPE to do the work.  It won’t work.  To be successful in reaching the non-voting gun owner, this needs to be a combined effort of the SCOPE State Board, the chapters and individual members of SCOPE acting on their own or with the chapters and the state.

    First, we need information.  Information on proposed laws, information about the laws already enacted and information on the voting records of politicians.  The more we know, the more we can arm ourselves and act (not react, we need to be on the offensive.)  You don’t have to be a chapter officer or state board member to do this.  All you need is a little time and a computer to research this on-line.  It’s not complicated.  And it gives meaning and a worthwhile cause to pursue. 

    But first you have to volunteer.

    There is a lot more to do if we are going to reach the non-voting gun owner and we will be explaining this in the future, but this is the start - the foundation.  When congressional elections are being decided by a handful of votes, it’s worth the effort. 

  • 12/10/2020 12:45 PM | Anonymous

    New York State Recreational Survey raises concerning questions.

    Recently, some of our members in parts of New York State have received a survey from what claims to be the “New York State Office of Addiction and Supports.”  SCOPE has inquired with NYSOAS if this is legitimate or a scam, as there are some questionable aspects to it, but has not yet received a reply.

    The survey offers respondents a gift card and claims that answers will be kept confidential.  However, the survey contains your address and a bar code that could conceivably be used to identify anyone who answers.

    Please note that several of the questions on the survey, if answered, could render you ineligible for a pistol permit if the information is later shared with a licensing agency.    The survey claims that answers will be held confidential.  However, under New York State Freedom of Information (FOIL) Law, “every New York State or municipal department, board, bureau, division, commission, committee, public authority, public corporation, council, office or other governmental entity performing a governmental or proprietary function” is subject to the open records law.  FOIL is based on a “presumption of access,” meaning that all records are accessible, except records or portions of records that fall within one of eleven categories of deniable records (NY FOIL §87[2]).

    Please also remember that New York is a “Red Flag” law state, meaning that “individuals who show signs of being a threat to themselves or others” can be prevented from purchasing or possessing any kind of firearm.

    Based on this, we recommend that any member of S.C.O.P.E. who receives this survey proceed at their own risk.    Several of our members have already said that they plan to throw the survey, and the gift cards, into the trash and not respond.    This may be a wise decision.  Fifteen dollars is a very cheap price for your rights of privacy and to keep and bear arms.

    Again, proceed at your own risk!

    It should be also noted that laws are being proposed to require a mental health examination be taken and passed in order to purchase any firearm or ammunition.  Be very careful about anything you put in writing – even the smallest comment might be used against you at some future date.

  • 12/10/2020 12:44 PM | Anonymous

    The Left Has A Problem by Tom Reynolds

    During election coverage, one of the networks asked a retired general: what if President Trump refuses to give up the presidency?  The general then starts talking about Trump calling out his supporters and there being riots in the streets and blood being shed.

    I thought, “Oh, you mean like what Antifa, Black Lives Matter and the Democrats have been doing for the last six months”?

    In contrast to the general’s concerns, that same evening, I saw on TV a protest by Trump supporters and the reporter commented that it was peaceful.  Not mostly peaceful. Peaceful.

    We’ve all seen videos of the daily protests that destroyed many of our inner cities (unless all you watch is CNN, then maybe you missed them).  Oregon Governor Kate Brown ordered the activation of the National Guard to quell months of rioting in Portland, THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION!  (Brown had rejected Trump’s offer to bring in the National Guard, months ago.)

    What the riots and Brown’s actions demonstrate is that, to the left, violence is just another way to achieve their objectives and if there is collateral damage, so be it.  But to the right, we actually believe in law and order; that arson and looting are crimes; that “do unto others” is more than just religious verbiage.  That’s why it is hard for us to recognize how evil the radical left leadership really is.  We believe in underlying goodness while the left makes no pretense of caring about goodness, morality or ethics.  They simply rationalize away their misdeeds. 

    But in pursuit of their agenda, (power by any means) the radical left has a problem.  It’s called the 2nd Amendment.  Actually, it’s called the entire Constitution of the United States but it’s 2A that really scares them.  They would love to just impose their agenda on us, like the Storm Troopers in Nazi Germany.  But unlike 1930’s Germany, we have guns…lots of them.  Probably about 250 million of them.

    This abundance of guns creates some indecision on the part of the radical left.  On one hand, they know gun owners are much more peaceful and law abiding than the left and they wonder if we would really use our firepower.  But they also know about the “Golden Mean”, which is “that indefinable point between try and try again and enough is enough”.  They worry about pushing us over into “enough is enough”. 

    The left has another problem and that is the record level of NICS checks and gun sales, especially new sales to women.  They worry that this movement may be significant enough to impact their reelection chances, if they pursue more gun control?  They will, of course, try to disguise any efforts as “common sense” and it will be our job to expose this lie. 

    Actually, not all of them are concerned about pushing us over the line and into a shooting scenario.  Those that want to “fundamentally change” the U.S. might be quite happy to see the U.S. disintegrate into civil wars.  Will the Republicans and any moderate leftists be able to rein in the leftist radicals short of civil war?  

    The radical left believes in gun control.  Lots of it.  Common sense or not, they believe citizens should not be armed.  Not for any reasons that are spoken of publicly but because an armed citizenry is a danger to tyrants, which is exactly why the Second Amendment was written.  The Founding Fathers were not going deer hunting, they had just fought a war to free a nation and they meant to keep it from all enemies, foreign and domestic.

    Our job is to continue what the Founding Fathers started.

  • 11/21/2020 1:55 PM | Anonymous

    A Few History Lessons For The Media  by Tom Reynolds

    The media’s hysterical reaction to Donald Trump challenging the election highlights their lack of knowledge – or willful ignorance – of law and history.  A few “blasts from the past”, some of which you may remember.

    Al Gore took more than five weeks to acknowledge defeat in the 2000 election to George W. Bush.  Gore called for selective recounts in heavily Democratic Florida counties while attempting to block the inclusion of military absentee ballots. It took more than a month of legal battles, recounts, and a Supreme Court decision to bring Gore to a concession.

    The Gore v Bush election was decided by just 537 votes in Florida.  Democrats still say, to this day, that it was stolen.  But - after the dust settled – a group of newspapers (including the reliably Democratic NY Times) did their own count and…Bush won, again.

    Some in the current media have praised Gore’s concession speech as a model for what Trump should immediately do, ignoring that it took 5 weeks for Gore to concede.

    The 1960 race between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon was filled with accusations that Democratic political machines—in Chicago, in particular—manufactured votes for Kennedy.  (Chicago…corrupt…say it aint so.)  Nixon considered challenging the election results in Illinois and a number of other states, but ultimately decided to concede for the sake of the country and his political career.

    The 1876 election between Democrat Samuel Tilden and Republican Rutherford B. Hayes had a turnout of 82% of eligible voters.  Ballot stuffing may have had something to do with the high turnout.  (That couldn’t happen today…could it?) 

    Tilden won the popular vote but neither candidate won enough electoral votes; 20 disputed electoral votes from four states would decide the majority. Each party reported its candidate had won the four states and one elector was replaced after being declared illegal for being an "elected or appointed official".  An informal deal was struck to resolve the dispute.  The Compromise of 1877 awarded all 20 electoral votes to the Republican, Hayes, and he became President by 1 vote.  Since political deals required a quid-pro-quo for the Democrats, the Republicans agreed to withdraw federal troops from the South, ending Reconstruction. The effect of the Compromise was to cede power in the Southern states to the Democrats, who proceeded to disenfranchise black voters.

    In the four way race in 1824 between Andrew JacksonJohn Quincy AdamsHenry Clay and William Crawfordno candidate won a majority of the electoral vote.  Andrew Jackson won the most popular and electoral votes but not a majority, so the election went to the House of Representatives.  On February 9, 1825, two months after the election, the House elected John Quincy Adams as President. 

    The Constitution eliminated House Speaker Henry Clay from being considered, after he finished fourth in the voting, and he threw his support to Adams.  After Adams won, Clay was nominated to be the Secretary of State.  At that time, the Secretary of State was considered the stepping stone to the Presidency.  Jackson and his supporters called “foul” on this but were unable to do anything.

    And talk about not conceding the election…

    Democrats, including Hillary Clinton, insisted that Trump colluded with Russians to steal the 2016 election, a story that most major media outlets ran with for years without providing any hard evidence.  When the Mueller report blew holes in that effort, they then impeached the President over a phone call.

    Before the recent election, Hillary Clinton’s advice to Joe Biden was to not concede the election.

    Georgia state Representative, Democrat Stacey Abrams, lost the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election to Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, by almost 55,000 votes.  Abrams has never conceded defeat. She is often asked by left wing media to give her opinion on the current election controversy.

    Both Nixon and Jackson did not – or were not able to – contest the election and both were eventually elected President.  Clay was never able to convert the Secretary of State position into the Presidency.  Gore, Tilden and Clinton disappeared from presidential politics.  Abrams is still hanging around as a TV commentator, pretending to be a force in Democrat politics.  Gore and Clinton were able to become multi-millionaires.

    The USA has been here before and probably will be again.  Fraud has happened before and probably will happen again, since at least one party benefits from fraud and has no reason to stop it.  A few weeks delay in deciding the presidency has happened before and will probably happen again.  Isn’t it worth the delay to ensure our voting system is secure?

  • 11/18/2020 2:47 PM | Anonymous

    Electoral College  by Tom Reynolds

    The left is trying to do away with the Electoral College and replace it, directly or indirectly with the popular vote.  In the Electoral College, each state gets one vote for each Senator and one vote for each Representative.  (A minimum of 3.  Eight states and D.C. have only 3 votes.) It would take a constitutional amendment to do away with the Electoral College.  All but two states have a winner take all approach; whoever wins the majority of the popular vote in that state gets all the electoral votes, whether the majority was by one vote or one million votes. 

    Keep in mind that the Electoral College helps protect the minority (small states) from the tyranny of the majority (large states). 

    There are some interesting numbers that need to be considered:

      As of July 1, 2019, the USA’s population was estimated at 328 million people. 

      The 10 most populated states had 178,000,000 (54% of the total population). 

      The next 10 most populated states had 71 million (22% of the population). 

      Combined, the top 20 states had 249 million (76% of the population).

      The 30 least populated states have only 24% of the population.  (The 30 least populated states are certainly the minority that needs to be protected.)

    California (population 39 million) has the most electoral and popular votes but gets little attention during the campaign since it will reliably go Democrat.  Nevada (population 3 million) has only 6 electoral votes but it got a lot of attention even though its vote was fairly evenly split. 

    If the President was elected by only the popular vote, the 30 least populated states would get much less attention from presidential candidates (before and after the election) since the election would depend on voter turnout and piling up numbers in the top 20 states - or maybe only the top 10 states.

    There is another reason to keep the Electoral College.

    In the current election, several states are very evenly split and there are numerous legal challenges as well as a possible recount in those states.  Imagine a national popular vote that was close and we had lawsuits and recounts in all 50 states!

    What is the chance that the Democrats can pass a Constitutional Amendment and do away with the Electoral College?  Unless the bottom 30 states have a death wish, virtually zero.  (Unfortunately, some states do seem to have that death wish.)

    One way the Amendment process can start is in Congress but if Republicans win in Georgia’s special election, they can use their majority in the Senate to stop it.

    An Amendment can also start if: two-thirds of the states (34 states) call a constitutional convention to draft a proposed amendment or if the Democrats have the majority in the Senate (they win both Georgia elections) and Congress passes the proposed amendment.  In both cases, the proposed amendment must then get the approval of three-fourths of the states (38 states).  Again, unless the bottom 30 states have a death wish, it won’t happen. 

    What if the deep blue states in the bottom 30 decided to vote for the proposed amendment, would that be enough?  There are only 8 deep blue states in the bottom 30.  And only 10 of the top 20 are deep blue.  Well short of the 38 needed.

    There are about 23 reliably Republican states that should not, in their worst moment of madness, ever consider doing away with the Electoral College.

    Democrats are trying another approach; on a state by state basis, they want to have each state assign all of their state’s electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote. (Assuming that the party they favor will forever win the national popular vote is a very chancy assumption since the future is…well…unknown.)  A smaller state could vote 100% for a candidate, but if that candidate loses the national popular vote, that state’s citizens will have lost their voice.  Any small state that agrees to that - and some small blue states have - would be giving away all of its votes to the 10 largest deep blue states.

    Apparently, political suicides do happen because 16 states have entered into an interstate compact and agreed to do this; 14 are deep blue and the other 2 lean blue.  9 of the 16 are relatively small to small states who, apparently, believe in political suicide.  (New York is the 4th most populated state – and declining – and is one of the 16).  The agreement would not take effect until these states had a majority of the electoral college votes in the agreement.  If a Republican should take the popular vote in a coming election, how many states would reconsider their commitment to this?

    By the way, interstate agreements for political purposes require Congress’ approval and Congress has not given its approval, so the agreement is currently illegal.  But hey, legality never stopped Democrats.

  • 11/18/2020 8:00 AM | Anonymous

    Actions Speak Louder than Words  by Michael A. Morrongiello, Ph.D.

    It is enough that the people know there was an election.  The people who cast the votes decide nothing.  The people who count the votes decide everything."       -- Joseph Stalin

    The man who calls himself President-Elect, Joe Biden, has recently called for unity.  We desperately need to be unified, but first Biden needs to convince the 72 million Americans who voted for Trump that Biden won in a fair election.  Fair elections are a cornerstone of a functioning republic.  

    When Trump won in 2016, no Democrat called for unity.  Instead, they launched the “resistance” which tried to intimidate Electors into casting their vote for someone other than Trump in the Electoral College.  The term “resistance” means resistance to a foreign occupation, not an elected President from the opposition party in your own country.  Long before that, the Obama administration intelligence agencies had spied on the Trump campaign and transition, spinning the narrative that Trump colluded with Russia to steal the 2016 election.  Elected Democrats routinely called Trump “Putin’s puppet” and said he was “illegitimate,” attempting to negate the 2016 election.  Conclusion: when Democrats say every vote must count, they don’t mean Republican votes.

    The Democrats were lying about collusion. Trump won the 2016 election.  Democrats famously said that Trump voters were deplorables, chumps and (the constant refrain) racists. They undermined public confidence in elections and in the office of the Presidency itself.  So, why wouldn’t we believe that they fixed the 2020 election?

    President Trump has not conceded the election, nor should he.  Trump has a solemn duty to his voters and the Constitution. The Trump campaign and the GOP are filing lawsuits in key states.  Republican poll watchers were denied access to observe vote counters in Detroit and Philadelphia. The Pennsylvania supreme court changed election law, when the Constitution clearly states that only state legislatures can do that.  The Trump campaign is also filing suit under the equal protection clause of the US Constitution.  The suit alleges that in Democrat counties, voters were allowed to alter mistakes in their ballot, in a process known as curing.  Voters in Republican districts were denied this opportunity, as their election officials strictly followed the law.

    If Biden truly wants to unite the country, he should call for a manual recount in every state where the margin of victory was 1% or less.  The count must be observed by both Democrat and Republican poll watchers.  Words are easy, but deeds are hard.  Hey, Joe:  Come on, man!  Look, here’s the deal.  Call for a recount.  Then I’ll believe you.

  • 11/13/2020 6:09 PM | Anonymous

    Georgia and the Supreme Court  by Henry Kramer

    As of November 11, 2020, Republicans had secured fifty (50) seats in the U.S. Senate with two outstanding senatorial elections still to be decided, both in Georgia.  These appear to be going to a runoff election on January 5, 2020 and will determine who controls the Senate.  These have major implications for 2nd Amendment rights, assuming that recounts and final counts in Georgia and Pennsylvania do not result in President Trump eking out a victory over Biden.

    The United States Supreme Court could hang in the balance.  Democrats have threatened to pack the court by adding liberal justices who would be likely to favor expanded gun control and perhaps even the confiscation of weapons, gutting the 2nd Amendment.  The threat to the Court may be somewhat abated this week as Senator Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not support court packing.  (However, this may only be a political ploy to ease Georgians’ mind about this issue.)  But if true, there would be at least 51 votes against court packing (at least 50 Republican senators plus Manchin).  Manchin also said he would not support eliminating the sixty-vote filibuster rule (that would protect a Republican minority in the Senate from being run roughshod over if there was a Democrat majority).  Again, is it a ploy?  And there is no guarantee that Manchin would not cave under Democrat Leader Schumer’s pressure.  The 2nd Amendment is not out of danger.

    The next Supreme Court appointment may occur during Biden’s administration. The most likely Justice to retire or leave the Court is Justice Breyer.  His departure would not change the balance of power but could lead to a farther-left nominee for the Court. A Republican Majority Senate could stop a far- left nominee while a Democrat Majority Senate is likely to approve one.

    Justice Thomas, if he was going to retire voluntarily from the Court would likely have done so already to ensure that his successor was a Trump nominee. 

    Early voting for the runoff election is schedule in Georgia for December 14 to December 31, though counties have the option to schedule more days for early balloting.  Absentee ballots will go out automatically to seniors, the elderly, military, and overseas voters who had them in the November general election.  There is no indication that Georgia will use mail in ballots (other than absentee ballots) for the runoff. 

    In prior senatorial runoff elections, Republicans have increased their margins and won the runoffs but in this year’s voting climate it is hard to predict turnout for a runoff (it is usually lower).  The Georgia legislature, which is under Republican control, could change the rules (the governor is also a Republican) and it might be wise to eliminate early voting, though the Supreme Court generally frowns on rule changes while an election is in process.

    There are strong reasons for supporters of the 2nd Amendment to be concerned that a Biden administration will attempt to gut 2A through legislation if they control House, Senate, and White House or - if power is divided - through the courts or by Executive Order.  We urge all 2nd Amendment supporters to contribute to and support pro 2nd Amendment candidates for the U.S. Senate in Georgia in this crucial election on January 5.

  • 11/11/2020 4:17 PM | Anonymous

    The House of Representatives  by Tom Reynolds

    There are 435 seats in the House, so 218 is a majority.  As of Tuesday at 5PM, per Politico, Republicans had won 201 seats and were leading in 11 more.  (212 total).  There are 5 of the 11 that are very close.  212 is not enough for a majority but a potential pickup of 15 from their starting point of 197.  Democrats have won 215 and are leading in 8. (223 total).  Of those undecided, 2 are almost tied and 5 are very close.  Of course, counting still continues so nothing is firm on the 19 still outstanding.

    Many of the undecided races are in New York, where there are five races undecided; Republicans have substantial leads in four of them and a small lead in the fifth.

    Without doubt, Democrat House members will see their ranks thinned, it’s just a question of how much.  As a result, several House Democrats have been outspoken in their criticism of Nancy Pelosi’s leadership. Their criticism focuses on the party’s far leftward tilt toward Socialism and the prominent place that radicals have taken in the party’s public image and that group’s influence being greater than their numbers.  Depending on the final figures, there may be sufficient anger to replace.    

    The Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman has already announced she is stepping down after only one term, another sign that the election did not go well for Democrats.

    Many House members are more likely than Senators to reflect rural values, such as the 2nd Amendment.  Senators represent the entire state - which may be dominated a few large cities (as in New York) - while Representatives have small districts within the state and rural voters have more of a say. 

    NICS checks and gun sales set records in the months before the election.  Congresspersons from rural areas, where gun rights are a big issue, will have to think twice before supporting gun control.  Could there be some defections from the Democrat Party line on gun grabbing?  If the House split remains close, it will only take a few defections to kill gun control bills in the House instead of depending on the Senate to do it.

    Biden’s proposals concerning guns may cause problems for a closely split House.  He has proposed applying an existing federal law, with a $200 tax on machine guns, to assault weapons — which he may define to include semi-automatic firearms. He also proposed requiring universal background checks on all firearms transfers, limiting firearm purchases to one per month, and giving owners of modern sporting rifles the option of either selling their guns “back” to the government or registering them under the National Firearms Act (compensated confiscation).

    Biden’s plan includes providing incentives (bribes with taxpayer dollars) to the states to set up gun licensing programs. He would give grants to state and local governments for them to require individuals to obtain a license prior to purchasing a gun. 

    A Biden administration might try to administratively (bypassing Congress) achieve his goals. 

    The U.S. Supreme Court will probably have something to say about this and its impact on exercising a fundamental right protected by the Constitution.

    Speaking of the need for guns, Democrats were silent on the riots until their polling started dropping.  Was it too little, too late?  Will riots restart?  The rioters saw success and almost no consequences as Democrat Mayors and Governors took a pass on law and order.  Will they see riots as a way to gain power?  If so, will Democrats stand up to them?

    Of course, pro-2A President Trump is contesting the election and if he were successful, we would have a very different situation!

  • 11/10/2020 10:43 AM | Anonymous

    Georgia On All Our Minds  by Tom Reynolds

    In the 100 seat Senate, political parties need 51 seats for control.  (The Vice President breaks ties.)  After the election, Republicans have 48 for sure and 1 that is almost certain and 1 that is highly probable for a 50 total. Democrats have 48 for sure.  The two remaining undecided seats are both in Georgia. 

    A Senate candidate in Georgia must win 50% of the vote or there is a runoff election between the top two candidates.  There were two Senate elections in Georgia (one a special election) and no candidate won 50% in either election.  So, there will be two Senate seats on the line in a January election.  The Republicans need one victory to maintain control while Democrats need a sweep of both.    

    In one election, Republican David Perdue leads by 90,000 votes with 49.8%.  His challenger, Democrat John Ossoff, got 47.9% of the vote.  The rest (115,000 votes, 2.3%) went to Libertarian Shane Hazel.  So, one immediate question is: where will Hazel’s voters go, (if they don’t sit out the January election)?

    Hazel is a Marine combat vet who supports 2A.  He was a former Republican who was disenchanted with the party and became a Libertarian (but he did not become a Democrat).  His web site has a mix of positions but would seem to lean Republican.  However, did his supporters vote for him or against a major party; and if so, which party?

    If exactly the same people vote in the special election that voted in the recent one, the Republican needs only 13,000 of the 116,000 who voted for Hazel.  Of course, exactly the same people won’t be voting for exactly the same party.

    The other election is a real mixed bag.  Democrat Raphael Warnock got 32.9% of the vote (1,612,000).  There were two major Republican candidates totaled 2,254,000 total votes (45.9%).  Of the three major candidates, the two Republicans led by 642,000 votes.  But there were 1,040,000 votes (21.2%) that went to 16 other candidates and some of these other candidates also identified as Republicans or Democrats!

    All candidates who identified as Republicans got a combined total of 2,425,000.  All Democrat candidates totaled 2,341,000.  There were about 134,000 votes that went to other candidates; primarily Independents and 1 Libertarian.

    50% of the total votes would have been 2,450,000.  Therefore, Republicans need 25,000 of the 134,000 votes and Democrats need 109,000 of the 134,000 votes, if the same people vote in the same way they just did.  But of course, exactly the same people will not vote for exactly the same party.

    While every voter should have been aware that the majority in the Senate hung in the balance, it has now hit them like a 2 by 4 as to how important their Senate vote will be and that may change some votes.

     Republicans will probably emphasize that winning Georgia would allow the Democrats to implement their radical agenda while Democrats will emphasize that winning Georgia allows them to implement their agenda and reverse the Trump agenda.  Under this scenario, will moderate Democrats be afraid of the radical left’s agenda and either: not vote or vote Republican?  Will more Republicans be motivated to vote in order to stop the radical left?  Under this scenario, very few Republicans will change their vote to a vote for the radical Democrat agenda.  But they have to show up!

    Will Republicans show up?  What will turnout be like?  Given the importance of this race, there will be multi-millions of dollars spent and turnout should be heavier than a normal for a Senate only race.  But will turnout rise to the level of the just completed race, when presidential candidates were on it? 

    Will gun rights be an issue, given the huge increases in NICS checks and gun sales, especially sales to first time gun owners?

    The Senate Majority Leader has huge powers to determine what gets done (or not done).  Expect Republicans to emphasize that this is election is between Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell and New York’s Chuck Schumer for Majority Leader.  Do Georgians want a New York Liberal dictating policy to Georgia?  Democrats may try to offset that by bringing up the recent Supreme Court fight, which may or may not help them. 

    Democrats are threatening to admit Puerto Rico and Washington DC as states with, presumably, all Democrat Senators in those two states.  They need a Senate majority to do that.  How will that play? 

    Democrats also threaten to pack the Supreme Court.  Republicans will use this to motivate Republicans while many Democrats have polled a bit negatively towards this power grab and it may demotivate them. 

    Unfortunately, the election is two months away.

A 2nd Amendment Defense Organization, defending the rights of New York State gun owners to keep and bear arms!

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East Aurora, NY 14052

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