Blue or Not by Costantin Belyayev
Is New York State truly a “solid blue” or a “deep blue” state?
This sentiment is frequently echoed by many individuals and publications from all walks of life. It is especially prevalent within organizations supporting the Second Amendment, and with good reason. New York State, prima facie, is “solidly or deeply blue”, when it comes to voting and voter registration, which makes it very difficult to defend our 2nd Amendment rights.
Is that description quite appropriate?
I have long thought that identifying New York as a solidly blue state does not tell the whole story. By doing so, we, the politically conservative residents of New York, project the wrong image within our own circles, but more importantly also outside of our state. To many a non-New Yorker, the state is merely an extension of New York City and its suburbs, and that urban centers are thought to make up the majority of New York State. Likewise, many non-New Yorkers often believe that most residents of our state are dyed-in-the-wool Democrat-voting liberals.
In order to look at the other side of the coin, I analyzed some statistical data and looked at some statistical images, all publicly-available via the Internet (spoiler alert: the data will not change the way New York votes by the end of this article but may show why it is premature to color our state with that predominant shade of dark blue.)
There are quite a few ways to look at New York’s voting and voter registration patterns. Here are a couple of options. One is numerically. And numerically, of course, blue-leaning Democrat voters outnumber red-leaning Republican/Conservative voters in New York by a large margin. No surprise there.
The other way, however, to look at the same issue is geographically. Then, the picture changes dramatically. The voting pattern map below from ZipDataMaps, a statistical website, shows a mostly “red” New York State with a smattering of “blue” regions throughout (composite of 2020-2024 election cycles).
(Note the predominance of red-toned areas. The redder the area, the more Republican votes cast. Definitely not a sea of deep or solid blue.)
One might challenge the usefulness of geographical analysis by saying that land does not vote, people do. But those who own and/or control the land tract, necessarily involve the land in the voting process through land use based on political leaning. Examples might include spending of income derived from the land, charitable contributions to like-minded organizations, customer relations for business owners, etc.
Now, for some numbers.
The following statistics were taken from the elections.ny.gov website, an official New York State data source. I am not here to question the veracity of those numbers; that may be a discussion for a different time. For the time being, here is what the data show:
For purposes of this letter I am only comparing major party (Democrat vs. Republican) voter registration. These data are represented as being accurate as of February 20, 2025, the latest available. We must also bear in mind that just because a voter is registered in one party, he/she may not vote that way or he/she may not vote at all. Again, any other voting irregularities that may or may not be present are a subject for a different discussion. This a representative snapshot.
New York State covers 54,555 square miles and is comprised of 62 counties. Five counties comprise the City of New York (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, Richmond). Outside of New York City, the following 18 counties have more registered Democrats than Republicans and may, therefore, be considered “blue” (even though some voted “red” or even-split according to the above map):
Albany (blue), Broome (even split), Clinton (blue), Columbia (blue), Dutchess (blue), Erie (blue), Monroe (blue), Nassau (even split), Onondaga (blue), Orange (red), Rensselaer (blue), Rockland (red), Schenectady (blue), Suffolk (red), Sullivan (red), Tompkins (blue), Ulster (blue), Westchester (blue).
The combined geographical area of these 18 counties is 15,111 square miles, or 27.7% of the state.
Outside of New York City, there are 538,807 more Democrat-registered voters than Republican (total voter number is 8,027,544). Considering New York’s reputation as a “solid blue” state, this is not an overwhelming figure, especially considering that not every registered voter votes in every election or votes party-line.
The five counties of New York City are overwhelmingly “blue”, as would be expected. Here, the Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2,784,870 registrations out of a total of 5,126,009. The city, however, adds a scant 469 square miles, or 0.9% of the state. Once added into the overall area calculation, it brings the total “blue” area of New York to 15,580 square miles, or 28.6% of the state. But once the registration numbers are reviewed, they show that statewide (NYC included) the Democrat voters outnumber Republicans by 3,323,677 registrations.
So, numerically speaking, it is easy to relegate New York to the “solid blue” territory. But once we look at the geography, the result is not so “blue”. In fact, even according to the current voter data and basic mapping, New York appears “red” over 71.4% of its area. That is hardly a “solid blue” state. And geography matters. As I said before, even though population density and uninhabited areas (waters, forests, parks, government property, transportation infrastructure, etc.) offset the figures somewhat, it appears that upwards of two-thirds of New York’s landmass is in some way “controlled” by conservative “red”-leaning voters.
In 1964, a case entitled Reynolds v. Sims, 377 U.S. 533 (commonly referred to as “One Man, One Vote”), was decided by the U.S. Supreme Court under Chief Justice Earl Warren. In that case, the court ruled that the 14th Amendment requires both houses of state legislative districts to be apportioned on a population basis. Prior to that, one house of many states had equal representation in every county (like the U.S. constitution does with state-by-state representation in the Senate.) This unfortunate ruling changed the political map of New York State and put us in our current predicament. But we can take some solace (albeit in cold comfort) from the fact that New York’s “blueness” is really a series of “stains” on an otherwise mostly “red” landscape.